Vision Al Blog
The holidays are here, bringing festive decorations, bustling shopping centers, and shoppers humming along to “Jingle Bell Rock.” But beneath the cheer lies a growing concern for retailers: the surge in theft, fraud, and organized retail crime (ORC) that accompanies the season.
For many in retail, this time of year isn’t just about spreading joy—it’s about bracing for risk. A recent survey indicates that 57% of U.S. retail workers feel unsafe as the holiday shopping season approaches(Source).
Last year alone, U.S. retailers faced a staggering $112 billion in shrink, with ORC incidents spiking up to 40% in November and December. The stakes are higher than ever, as 88% of retailers report rising aggression among shoplifters, and 65% of thefts now involve violence or confrontation.
If you’re in retail—or know someone who is—this episode is a must-listen. We’re diving into the data, stories, and strategies that can help you stay ahead this holiday season. And our guest, Basia Pietrawska is literally walking the streets of New York talking to retailers to bring insights to you, “I was in New York City last week for a two hour span and witnessed verbal arguments from several customers at seven locations […] I think violence, it’s absolutely the number one concern right now.”
In this special edition holiday episode, Basia Pietrawska, a crime analysis expert and Senior Advisor at Lowers & Associates who also consults with CAP Index, LPRC, and ASIS International, joins Patrick Welsh, Oosto’s GM for America, to discuss the rise in holiday retail crime. Hosted by Matt Plantier, the conversation highlights data-driven strategies, collaboration, and proactive prevention for retail safety and security.
Leveraging Data to Tackle Retail Crime
The holiday season sees a surge in retail crime, putting stores under pressure to do more with less while facing heightened safety risks. Addressing organized retail crime and petty theft begins with understanding these threats. Identifying criminal patterns provides actionable insights for retail workers and law enforcement to prevent crimes before they occur. Collaborative efforts and unified data strategies enable businesses to refine policies, reduce theft, and ensure the safety of employees and the community.
Basia adds to the conversation, “I think violence, it’s absolutely the number one concern right now, because it affects the employees, it affects them wanting to come to work. I hear that from a lot of them. I do a lot of site visits with customers, where I actually speak to employees on site. And oftentimes, they will open up to me because I’m not with their company. And that is their concern. A lot of times, they’re thinking about changing their jobs, because they just don’t feel safe going to work, especially in big cities. And then ultimately, how that affects customers. I’ve done some surveys on that earlier this year. And just the general perception is people are switching more to online shopping because they’re not comfortable going to stores.”
Addressing solutions to the challenges in retail crime she adds, “We want to use data proactively to stop these things from getting worse.”
Escalating Violence: The Ripple Effect
Opportunistic thieves exploit high retail employee turnover and worker fatigue, especially during the holidays when longer hours and fewer breaks disrupt routines and heighten store vulnerability. Visible measures like employee training, de-escalation protocols, and proactive strategies create safer environments, supporting worker retention, customer satisfaction, and community trust. Holiday retail crime isn’t just about lost goods—it’s about protecting people.
Basia states, “Even if theft goes up, one of the biggest concerns that I’m hearing from my clients is the general escalation of violence that comes with what used to be just theft or shoplifting. Now they’re getting much more serious in nature, and have much more of an impact on employees and customers.”
On organized crime, Basia adds, “Financial loss is huge when it comes to ORC. But the one thing that retail needs to be very aware of is, again, the increase in violence associated with these incidents.”
Unfortunately, retailers know this all too well, “It’s not always crime, but it’s a disturbance to the business that affects sales, affects perception of safety, discourages customers from coming in,” she continues.
Essential Collaboration
Cross-agency partnerships with local and federal law enforcement are vital for effective crime mitigation, particularly when supported by proactive practices such as tabletop exercises. Industry associations provide valuable resources by standardizing crime definitions, improving response protocols, and fostering stronger collaboration among retailers and authorities. Building trust in law enforcement and engaging proactively can help break down information silos, ensuring a more coordinated and efficient approach to addressing retail crime.
Basia shares the need for collaboration, “I do strongly believe that when you think about the nature of ORC, involves a lot of collaboration amongst those criminals. And the same has to happen on the retail side. There needs to be better collaboration as far as information sharing so we can be more proactive.”
Proactive Prevention: Supplying the Tools
Real-time watchlist alerting gives retailers data incident prevention and insights into trends, improving communication and support to safeguard workers, customers, and property. Sharing data across stores enhances crime prevention while analyzing past incidents helps justify stronger security measures and budgets.
Beyond Retail: Lessons Learned from Other Industries
Retail is often the focus during the holidays, but high-traffic locations like healthcare facilities, airports, or transit hubs face unique challenges too. Transit systems often see a rise in fare evasion and related crimes during busy travel periods (Source). Emergency Departments and hospitals see a significant rise in patient visits during the holidays (Source). “Porch piracy” becomes more prevalent, with 30% of consumers reporting at least one stolen package, up from 25% in 2022 (Source). The National Insurance Crime Bureau reported a 13% increase in auto thefts since June 2020, with continued trends during holidays (Source).With risks amplified during this time, retail teams can learn from others.
Basia mentions, “When I say collaboration, it has to go beyond retail. And I’m personally very passionate about this sort of crossover from retail to restaurant to financial, because these guys are dealing with a lot of similar issues. And while a bank doesn’t deal with ORC necessarily, they’re still dealing with other issues that are similar. And a lot of times these crimes crossover. So being aware of what your neighbors are experiencing, even though they’re not traditional retail, is key. “
Basia closes with lessons learned on data collection, advice on where to source data, and how to use the data collected across locations. Plus, she offers advice on how to secure more budget for underfunded loss prevention departments. Finally, Patrick reinforces the need for proactive versus reactive approaches to addressing holiday retail crime.
Why Listen?
Discover how AI is transforming retail security this holiday season, tackling theft, fraud, and organized crime with data-driven strategies.
Listen Now: oosto.com/podcast
